Reports from The Sun that Sam Bailey is regularly topping the voting polls by a resounding margin offers a clear reason that she has gone odds-on for the first time to win the X Factor at 5/6.
However, even if Sam is collecting around a third of all votes, this may be the optimum time to back Nicholas McDonald for victory at 11/4.
The running order for the live shows can play a major part in which acts end up in elimination trouble, with the consensus being that a late slot is preferred, with voting lines opening once all acts have performed.
For example, in five of the six live shows so far, Tamera Foster has been one of the final three acts to perform. The one instance in which she wasn’t, she was in the bottom two.
In contrast, Nicholas has not really been given much support from the show thus far and still not sunk into the bottom two, with numerous songs picked for him that he had never heard before and that would certainly not encourage the younger females to vote for him.
The exit of Sam Callahan may now mean the show attempt to make Nicholas the focus of the younger female vote and so he will be given song choices and attire to fit this.
In the opening five weeks, Nicholas had only performed outside of the first four slots once, but the fact he was last on stage in week six does offer some belief that he will now be given more of a push.
The one final reason to back Nicholas is because he is the sole remaining northern act left in the competition and location has been known to affect voting.
Acts from Liverpool have an especially good track record on the X Factor and Nicholas could mop up all of the votes from the North, who may be willing to back their own.
Scotland have a fair talent show record, with Leon Jackson winning series four of the X Factor, Jai McDowell springing a surprise on Britain’s Got Talent, David Sneddon triumphing on Fame Academy and Michelle McManus a former Pop Idol victor.
Of the other acts, Hannah Barrett and Rough Copy are from London, Tamera comes from Kent, Luke Friend is from Devon and Sam is from Leicestershire.
There is every chance that there is a big audience that will get behind Nicholas now, especially the whole of Scotland and voters from Yorkshire upwards.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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