Serena Williams may not look like much value at 1/6 to beat Maria Sharapova in the women’s French Open final, but there are certainly reasons to argue that this is a better price than the 1/9 on Rafael Nadal winning the men’s equivalent against David Ferrer.
See, Williams is unbeaten in 31 matches this year, she has not lost to Sharapova in their 12 matches since 2004 and in their last eight, she has dropped just one set.
Nadal may well be far more dominant than Williams at the French Open, but it is worth noting that he has been taken to a deciding set by Ferrer in their last two meetings this year.
The only time that Williams has been pushed this tournament is by Svetlana Kuznetsova, who is a player that has the power and variation to cause problems on her day.
Although Sharapova does have the power to come close to matching Williams, she doesn’t have the variety and therefore is fairly limited in terms of orchestrating a gameplan to end her lengthy losing streak.
Because of this, there is little reason to suggest that Williams won’t overcome Sharapova in straight sets again at 1/2 in the French Open odds and become the oldest winner at Roland Garros in the women’s game since 1958.
Williams’ last two Grand Slam finals may have needed a third set, but she appears a much more in control player these days and her now-found calmness should prevent any tension.
Another 1/2 bet worth getting involved with is Sharapova to serve the most double faults.
For starters, her service games are liable to go on for longer which means more total serves and hence more opportunity to double fault.
Meanwhile, in more than any other game this tournament, Sharapova will have to attack on both her first and second serves to gain an advantage in rallies, which increases the risk of a mistake.
The other betting option looks to be the 5/6 that under 10.5 aces will be served in the match, with no more than eight being served in any of their three meetings in 2013.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.