On any other surface, you’d expect a close and competitive game between Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka. But the Spaniard’s incredible record on clay means we can only see Sunday’s French Open Final going one way.
Rafa has won nine of the last 12 titles at Roland-Garros, and has never been beaten in the final here. And having started the year promisingly with a Final appearance at the Australian Open, he’s in fine fettle at present.
Wawrinka did lift this trophy in 2015, so some may still be tempted by the 7/2 for him to overcome this challenge, but it’s hard to overestimate just how good his opponent is on this stage – so it’s no surprise Nadal is a 1/5 favourite for victory.
However, we do think there’s value in Stan taking something from this meeting. Five of Nadal’s previous nine finals have seen the Spaniard win 3-1 in sets, and a repeat of that is priced up at 5/2.
And with the 31-year-old having lost the opening set in three of his previous nine victories, the 9/4 for the Swiss ace to win the first set could prove good value. As could backing the Spaniard in-play in the match betting, if that happens.
We certainly think the nine-time champ will look the fresher over the piece, having breezed past Austria’s Dominic Thiem in straight sets in the Semi-Finals, while the World number three endured a gruelling and enthralling five-set victory over Andy Murray.
That means that we like the 1/2 for Rafa in the Set 2 – Race to 3 Games market.
So, can Nadal justify his status as firm favourite and get revenge for his 2014 Australian Open Final defeat to Wawrinka? We think so, but fans will be waiting with bated breath for Sunday’s showpiece.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing