It’s surprisingly rare for the top two seeds to both make it to the ATP Tour World Tour Finals decider so it’s no surprise that this evening’s Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal collision is being billed as a dream final.
The fact that clashes between the two have become rarer of late makes this tie even more tantalising – after facing off 17 times between 2006 and 2009, this is only their second meeting of the year, Nadal winning the previous encounter at the Madrid Masters in May.
It is the Spanish world number one who has the head-to-head advantage of course at 14-7 and he has come out on top in six of the last seven matches, however he is the 6/5 outsider to take the season-closing title.
It’s hard to dispute Roger Federer’s position as 8/13 favourite to win this competition – one that Nadal has never been victorious in – for the fifth time. The 16-time Grand Slam champion didn’t drop a set en route to the final, something never before achieved this century.
In addition, he has a far better recent record against Nadal on hard courts, triumphing in two of their last three meetings on the surface, with both of those wins coming in this tournament.
So while this has been the Swiss world number two’s worst year since 2003 in terms of Grand Slam performance, if he delivers tonight it will be his most successful as far as titles goes since 2007.
Each of his previous four final victories in this competition have come in straight sets, so the 13/8 on Federer winning 2-0 appeals, while it’s 11/4 that it will go the distance with Federer lifting the trophy.
The winner of the first set has gone on to triumph in each of the last ten Federer versus Nadal showdowns and Federer is evens to take the first set and then the match.
A £10 stake on him doing just that would provide a £10 profit. New customers can sign up here for a free £10 bet.