It’s make or break time for Andy Murray as the Scot looks to build on his 2-0 win over Milos Raonic in order to reach the semi-finals of the tour finale in London.
Unfortunately for the Brit, Roger Federer is standing in his way and while the two-time Major winner holds the head-to-head edge over the Swiss master we cannot back him here.
Read on to see why a Murray defeat is one of the three best bets of the day.
As mentioned above, Murray is one of the few players on the tour to have won more often than losing against Federer, with a head-to-head score of 12-11.
However, Murray was forced to endure a gruelling schedule just to reach these finals and is unlikely to be operating at peak performance.
Unfortunately that’s just what he needs, having never beaten Federer indoors before.
The Swiss ace has beaten Murray on all three occasions at the O2, 2-0 in 2012, 2-0 in 2010 and 2-1 in 2009, and took their only other meeting on the surface – a Bangkok clash in 2005 – in straight sets.
Raonic’s indoor record this year is shoddy, winning eight but losing seven of his 15 matches, and after back-to-back 2-0 losses a win here looks out of the questions.
Nishikori has won four of their five career meetings, with just one of those matches proving a straight sets affair.
With Raonic looking to avoid bowing out without even taking a set, the odds on a 2-1 loss look the best value.
With Nishikori and Federer strong favourites for victory – at 8/13 and 4/9 respectively – the advice is to back the double.
Federer has won three of his last four meetings with Murray and can level their head-to-head score with victory here, while Raonic has probably given up hope of catching up with US Open finalist Nishikori.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
Fancy a flutter? Sign up today to claim up to £100 in free bets.