Day six of the Masters sees Judd Trump turn out for his quarter final match where he will take on Scottish potting fiend Graeme Dott, whom he is expected to beat heavily. His 1/3 match odds aren’t worth backing in a two-horse race so we’ve tried to unearth ways in which money can be made on this clash, as well as Mark Selby’s tussle with Mark Williams.
Judd Trump v Graeme Dott
The only contests in which Dott has prevailed over the young Englishman have been over nine frames maximum, any longer duels have been comfortably won by Trump, who is bidding to reach his second Masters semi final here.
With this in mind, it could be worth bumping up the favourite’s odds by backing him to win the match after overcoming a negative 2.5 handicap. Only one of Trump’s wins over this adversary have been by a margin fewer than two frames and the longer the match tends to go on, the larger the deficit tends to be. Take his 12-5 win when they met in the World Championships, as the case study.
He can be backed at 10/11 to win with this handicap applied which, admittedly, is a touch on the short side, but it should still prove fruitful.
The finest bet lies in the break market, however. A century-making machine, Trump racked up his 46th and 47th ton-plus breaks of the season in his thrilling 6-5 win over Barry Hawkins in the last-16 (which we tipped up) and the 7/2 on offer for him to repeat the feat is excellent value.
Mark Selby v Mark Williams
Akin to Trump, the Jester from Leicester weighs in at an almost unbackable 1/3 for this bout with Welsh wizard Williams.
The underdog has the far superior head-to-head record, however, and must be worth a punt at such long-odds of 12/5. He’s won seven of their 11 matches and an impressive 64 of their 111 frames.
To claim the lion’s share of the first four frames is available to back at a massive 7/2 and, these stats considered, must be worth a punt.
The break market, again, presents us with an interesting bet for this clash. It’s 11/8 for no centuries to be scored by either Williams or the current world number one. The former has only managed seven all season and Selby’s effort of just one in his last three outings suggests that spectators are set to miss out on a ton-fest here.
All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date