England take on the mighty New Zealand in the first Test this weekend and odds of 1/66 on the All Blacks claiming victory do little to inspire confidence in Stuart Lancaster’s men.
The Kiwis have won 10 of the last 11 meetings with England and of the 12 matches played on home soil the All Blacks have won 10 and lost just two.
That doesn’t mean that England can’t be backed however, and patriotic punters should be steered toward the 10/11 on England winning with a +22-point handicap.
Manu Tuilagi is back to full fitness and well rested by virtue of his lack of game time for the Leicester Tigers this season and if one man can take the game to the All Blacks it is the powerhouse centre.
Over the 12 games played in New Zealand the All Blacks have averaged just under 31 points, while England have scored just under 13 in return.
If these averages are to prove in indicator of what’s to come then the +22 margin should serve England backers well with the average loss gap proving 18 points.
With those figures in mind, however, punters more concerned with winnings rather than an urge to back the boys could be better pointed in the direction of New Zealand -11 at 11/10.
Not a huge difference in price but if you’re putting your faith in the numbers like a professor than the odds-against pricing is certainly the better value bet.
England’s failure to compete with New Zealand in recent years explains their pricing as 14/1 outsiders and with the inexperienced trio of Marland Yarde, Anthony Watson and Jonny May all set to figure the visitors could be on course for a hiding.
Chris Ashton will provide some much-needed experience on the wing but with injuries limiting Lancaster’s options this time round, the Red Rose look a little light to make a real fist of it.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
Fancy a flutter? Sign up today to claim up to £100 in free bets.