Australia may head into the Ladbrokes Four Nations final in sparkling form, but with the Kangaroos so closely matched with current world number one’s New Zealand, it’s the 5/1 Kiwis who look the better value for victory in every market.
They were edged out 14-8 during the meeting between this pair in the Group Stage, but that was largely down to a poor opening 15 minutes from the Kiwis, who were the stronger after that point and arguably unlucky to come away with a defeat.
David Kidwell’s side have got the job done in their other fixtures, showing plenty of character to edge past hosts England in the opener, before doing the necessary in Friday’s 18-18 draw with Scotland – a game in which NZ were never behind.
The Kiwis also boast a decent head-to-head record against their opponents, having won three of the last six meetings since Autumn 2014 – including a 26-12 thumping of the Kangaroos at Suncorp Stadium last May. And they’ll be keen to avenge their recent pair of defeats – in a test game last month, and most recently in this competition.
Australia’s short price of 1/6 for victory can be explained by their having only lost four games since the start of the decade – though every one of those came at the hands of New Zealand, who won this tournament last time out in 2014.
One man who’s been at the heart of everything good the Kiwis have done in this year’s Ladbrokes Four Nations is Canberra Raiders winger Jordan Rapana, with three tries to his name already. He looks well priced to be first tryscorer at 14/1, while 2/1 says he gets over the line anytime.
Meanwhile, for those looking for an apparent banker, the New Zealand +18 at 4/7 appears to be just that. That bet would have paid out in seven of the last meetings between the pair.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing