Based on Ladbrokes general election constituency odds, (now available for every seat in Great Britain), we’ve identified the seats in Wales most at risk of changing hands in 2015.
|Seat||Win10||% Maj 2010||Chance of losing seat||Prediction|
|Cardiff North||Cons||0.4||79.74%||LAB GAIN|
|Cardiff Central||LD||12.7||69.05%||LAB GAIN|
|Arfon||PC||5.6||51.32%||Too close to call|
|Carmarthen W & P’shire||Cons||8.4||42.67%||CON HOLD|
|Vale of Glamorgan||Cons||8.8||40.82%||CON HOLD|
|Brecon & Radnorshire||LD||9.7||36.07%||LD HOLD|
|Ynys Mon||Lab||7.1||27.82%||LAB HOLD|
|Preseli Pembrokeshire||Cons||11.6||25.44%||CON HOLD|
So, of the 40 seats in Wales, only two in Cardiff are predicted as likely changes.
The betting suggests Arfon is on a knife edge, with Labour and PC as 5/6 joint favourites. Plaid’s other two seats look reasonably safe and there are two plausible targets for them in Ynys Mon and Ceredigion.
Montgomeryshire has the distinction of being the most likely Liberal Democrat gain in the entire country, according to our odds. Lembit Opik suffered a huge swing against him in 2010; perhaps a new candidate can make a difference.
New cabinet minister Stephen Crabb is by no means safe in Preseli Pembrokeshire, although if Labour win here they are likely headed for a comfortable Westminster majority.