With 10 days to go before Election Day, Barack Obama remains a strong favourite to secure re-election.That’s despite the national polls showing the two candidates almost level. In fact some averages show Romney fractionally ahead.
However, the Presidential election does not come down to who gets the most votes nationwide. Al Gore managed that in 2000, but still lost out to George W. Bush who secured more electoral college votes thanks to a wafer thin majority in Florida. Anyone who thinks Mitt Romney might suffer the same fate can take the 5/1 that either candidate wins most votes but loses the election. That’s been backed in from 16/1 and looks a definite possibility as things stand.
Romney’s big problem comes down to one state; Ohio. If he can’t win there he looks stuck for a path to the White House. John McCain won 22 states back in 2008 and the latest state by state betting suggests Romney can pick up Indiana, North Carolina, Florida and possibly Colorado and Virginia. That still leaves him short of the winning line. Iowa and New Hampshire won’t be enough, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look out of reach. It looks like he has to win Ohio. He’s currently 2/1 to do that. It’s certainly close, but not a single recent poll in the state has shown him ahead. The state looks so crucial, that Ladbroke’s are offering 12/1 that either candidate manages to win the election without securing Ohio.
Those who think Romney can scrape home, might want to have a look at Ladbroke’s Electoral College votes market. 270 is the magic number for victory and it’s currently 4/1 that Romney gets between 270 and 289.
Check out the @ladpolitics Twitter feed for all of the latest betting developments as the big day approaches.
Note: All odds and markets are correct at the date and time of publishing.