After YES hit an all time low of 7/4 on Wednesday, the Survation poll combined with the banking announcements have seen a huge shift in the betting markets back to NO, now 1/4 with Ladbrokes. If tonight’s YouGov shows NO back in front by a similar level, the price could quickly collapse even further. I’d say a 52-48 NO lead would be a result that would have a broadly neutral effect on the odds.
A new market up at Ladbrokes is some betting on which of the 32 council areas will have the highest YES percentage share. Everyone seems agreed that Dundee will go heavily for YES.
We’ve based our odds on the SNP share of the vote in the 2011 local elections combined with some census data on household deprivation (polls show that social classes CDE are much more likely to vote YES). You can get some further clues from the always excellent election-data site, who have broken down some recent polling by geographical area.
You can find the latest odds on our site here.