— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) August 30, 2014
The Mail on Sunday/Survation poll appears to have killed any hopes of the Clacton by-election being an interesting betting heat. We were 2/7 about a UKIP victory beforehand and 1/10 after the poll came out.
Yes, it was taken in the immediate aftermath of Carswell’s shock decision, and the chances of UKIP actually getting 64% are probably quite low, but it immediately stopped anyone betting on what had looked like an intriguing contest. Here’s the breakdown of the money we’ve taken on the by-election, almost all of it before the poll:
Once we have a confirmed date for the by-election, I expect we’ll release some more prices on turnout, vote shares and margin of victory.
We took a bit of money on Boris Johnson being the Tory candidate, originally a 33/1 shot. The chances of him wanting to go anywhere near Clacton after this poll seem fairly remote.