Betting points to Plaid Cymru gains at general election

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There has been some noticeable support for Plaid Cymru in some of our constituency betting in recent weeks. They currently hold three Westminster seats and have three further plausible targets for May. Below is a table showing their chances of winning each of those seats, as implied by Ladbrokes’ latest odds in each individual seat.

Seat 2010 Winner Majority % PC Win %
Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC 22 90.90%
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr PC 9.2 75.43%
Arfon PC 5.6 52.18%
Ceredigion LD 21.8 39.65%
Ynys Mon Labour 7.1 29.86%
Llanelli Labour 12.6 15.09%

In Llanelli, their odds have shortened from 16/1 into 5/1 over the last couple of weeks. I’m not sure what in particular might have driven that. South Wales looks like an area that UKIP might be able to win over some Labour voters, so perhaps that could give Plaid an opportunity to sneak through the middle in a seat like this. Ynys Mon might also be a constituency in which UKIP could do well, so maybe that will help the nationalists there too.

Ladbrokes have released odds on the total number of seats that PC will win at the general election, and we make it odds-on that they will make at least one gain.

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Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections. Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.


6 Comments

Ted

Llanelli I was told it was the old classic election trick… a Plaid Cymru activist (or candidate) put £100 on Plaid Cymru gaining Llanelli and that was enough to trim the odds. The Llanelli Plaid team then make a big fuss of “bookies slash odds on Plaid gain” stories. Check with your own Traders on how much money has been placed on just the Llanelli market. I’ll guess it’s Plaid £100, Others £0 hence change of odds.

mshaddick

No. That doesn’t look like what has happened. It’s true, it wouldn’t take a huge amount of money to move the odds in an individual seat, but this isn’t just one person having £100.

Alun

” I was told it was the old classic election trick”
Who by, the Labour candidate? Labour really are getting worried, aren’t they.

christopher cook

the last two elections i have represented plaid the ward of cross keysand hopefully i will represent for the next coming up electionscross keys have been held by labour for a long time long timei felt like we needed more media coverage in small villagesif somebody could contact mei would be most grateful to talk about this

Welsh not British (@welshnotbritish)

Labour have had an MP in Llanelli for the last 93 years. They are in bed with the closet Tories (Peter Hain’s description) on the county council in order to keep Plaid (the largest party) out of power. Their MP constantly votes against bills that would devolve more powers to Wales, is a lover of bombing other countries children and is dead against enquiries about bombing other countries children.

Plaid’s candidate has been canvassing all across the county and Plaid Youth are a regular fixture in Llanelli town centre on weekends.

At the last march commemorating the Llanelli Riots the speakers all rounded on Labour whilst the Labour representatives hid in the corner.

Is it really too much of a leap to think that Labour have a genuine reason to worry? Not just because they will lose votes to Plaid but because they will also lose votes to UKIP who had less than 3% in the last GE but came second (ahead of Labour) to Plaid in the Euro elections albeit based on the full council boundary not just the southern half.

If the UK Idiot Party can get around 10% then 35% could be enough to win the seat and rid Llanelli of one red tory with the rest given a major wake up call.

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