The 2016 US Presidential Election is just a fortnight away, and early voting has already begun. While the outcome for many States appear to be foregone conclusions, there are a trio who the bookies can’t quite call if they’re to vote Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump into the Oval Office.
With States such as California at 1/200 for Democrat and Oklahoma 1/100 to vote Republican, there are plenty of States where some punting excitement is in short supply.
Step forward Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa.
Arizona has voted Republican in every election bar one since 1952, and that one exception was Bill Clinton in 1996.
It says much for the struggles of Donald Trump’s campaign then, that Democrats are the 8/11 favourite to win the vote of the Copper State.
With almost 400 miles of Arizona bordering Mexico, Trump’s pledge to build a wall was always going to be a major issue.
But it appears to have fallen flat, with a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll suggesting almost half of Arizona’s voters would consider the wall a waste of money.
Trump is Evens to win Arizona, but there seems plenty of value in backing the Great Canyon State to deviate from its Republican routine to vote in a Clinton once more.
Largely Republican since 1960, only Jimmy Carter (from Georgia) and Bill Clinton (Arkansas) have broken the State’s red run in 56 years.
A rapidly growing population could see Democrats come to the fore here in years to come, and that may already be coming true with polls hinting that Trump’s former advantage is shrinking.
With that in mind, those 15/8 odds on Clinton shouldn’t be dismissed.
With the latest realclearpolitics.com stats suggesting Trump holds a four point lead however, it could be wise to back an upset here.
Clinton had led the way briefly in the summer, but Iowa – which has voted Democrats in seven of the last seven elections – looks poised to swing.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing