Andrew Osagie may have the slowest personal best of the eight athletes contesting the final of the men’s 800m, but that does not entirely rule him out of gaining a surprise medal.
It is 4/1 that Osagie medals and taking a bronze is not beyond the realms of possibility, especially if he is patient on the opening lap.
Virtually all of the entrants prefer to either set the pace or be on the shoulder of the lead, with Osagie and maybe Nick Symonds of the US happy to settle at the back in the early stages.
The result could be a tear up on the opening lap for position, allowing Osagie to sweep through down the home straight, as he did to take second in his semi final to guarantee his spot in a first Olympic final.
He finished behind David Rudisha in this race and it seems 99 per cent impossible that the Kenyan can be beaten.
The current world record holder is close to two seconds faster than anybody else in the field this season and there is no danger of him getting caught up in the pack, as he always opts to front run.
Rudisha is 1/14 to win what is priced up as a banker gold medal.
The only athlete to have ever beaten Rudisha in recent memory is Ethiopia’s Mohammed Aman, who marginally triumphed in a wet Milan late last season.
He appears the only logical contender and can be backed at 10/1 to win gold.
Abubaker Kaki is the second quickest based on times, but he is known to get his tactics wrong and is liable to go out too hard, along with Duane Soloman of the US.
Botswana’s Nijel Amos has looked strong in qualification and the reigning world junior champion over the distance looks Osagie’s main threat for bronze if he does not get overexcited on the opening lap.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.