Why Band Aid 30 are a bad bet for Christmas number one

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It’s no surprise to see Band Aid 30’s ‘Do They Know It’s Christmas?’ leading the market at 4/7 to be this year’s festive number one, considering the previous three incarnations of Bob Geldof’s baby have achieved said feat.

However, there are a couple of significant factors in play that strongly suggest ‘Sir’ Bob and co will fall short this time round.

In 1984, Band Aid’s effort outsold all the other records in the chart combined on its first week of release and stayed at the summit into the new year.

In 1989, Band Aid II had all the power of Pete Waterman’s sugary pop stable behind it, with Kylie Minogue and Jason Donovan in particular helping to sweep the record to the top of the charts.

Geldof’s changeable crew struck gold again 10 years ago, hanging on to number one for four weeks after its release at the end of November, which was just one fewer than the original.

However, 2014’s version must emulate the efforts of Midge Ure, Boy George, Simon Le Bon et al 30 years ago if it is to justify this odds-on price.

‘Do They Know It’s Christmas’ is being (re)released on November 17th, a full 12 days earlier than in 1984 and 2004, while December 11th was the date the song came out in 1989.

Neither of the previous pair of rehashes were able to match the original in terms of number one longevity, and with competition coming from all sides Band Aid 30 has to be taken on at such a short price.

The X Factor winner has claimed this prize in six of the last nine years, including four times successively following the last Band Aid effort.

That puts both Andrea Faustini and Ben Haenow, the current market leaders for ITV’s flagship, well in the mix at 7/2 and 6/1 respectively.

Another interesting angle may be found in backing what is now thought of as the anti-X Factor single, which looks to be coming from Iron Maiden this year at 50/1.

Rage Against The Machine were surprise chart-toppers five years ago with ‘Killing In The Name Of’, and Bruce Dickinson’s band are arguably more popular, and better known, than Zack de la Rocha’s crowd.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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