Bookmakers, punters and pundits are all preparing for a cracking Great Voltigeur Stakes today but it could all come undone should Seville run to his potential.
The 6/4 favourite is an uneasy pick with plenty of people and you’ll find plenty of punters apposing Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old today, and as there have only been three winning favourites in the last 10 years, there’s every reason to do so.
However all three of those favourites were 6/4 or shorter and Rewilding justified his favouritism last year.
On paper this eight runner field looks like a three-horse race between Seville, Sea Moon (11/4) and Namibian (9/2), and it may be worth a reverse trifecta on the top three in the betting filling the first three places in the race.
Namibian, following his victory in the Gordon Stakes – the three Gordon Stakes runners to have come to the Voltigeur have finished 1, 2 and 7 – will be fancied by many to upset the favourite but the trends are against him.
Eight of the last 10 winners were winning a group race for the first time and eight of the last 10 winners were winning over 1m4f for the first time.
Namibian has already achieved that and while Seville has been beaten in all five of his Group starts (he’s finished second in four), he’s the fastest horse in the race and should he run to his potential, he should win.
At 6/4 he is a little short considering his lack of wins in Group company, but with his two main rivals offering very little each-way value, O’Brien’s horse looks worth a punt.
Sea Moon has plenty of ability and will be a genuine Leger contender should he win, but this is a big step-up in company and taking on Seville and Namibian may have come too soon.