Looking back at previous renewals of the St Leger may offer valuable insight into which horse will triumph at Doncaster this year and based on official ratings, the field can already be narrowed down to just three of the entrants.
All of the last seven St Leger winners have been officially rated between 109 and 115 and the only three runners that fulfil this criteria this year are Cap O’Rushes (20/1), Leading Light (5/1) and Talent (12/1).
A horse rated either 111 or 112 would have been the optimum as four of the last five St Leger victors were allocated one of these marks, but the only entry in this bracket this time is Eye Of The Storm, who is looking a likely non runner.
Therefore, the ratings range has been branched out, but this still reads as bad news for some popular selections.
Excess Knowledge most notably fits this trend, who is looking to become the first horse in a decade to win the St Leger with an official rating lower than 109. The 10/3 joint favourite in the St Leger betting goes off a mark of 107.
Secret Number and Feel Like Dancing are others that may be popular each-way selections that seem to have little chance of winning based on this trend.
Foundry is interesting because horses need to have run three times to be given an official rating and to date he has only raced twice.
In the last 10 years, the St Leger has twice been won by a horse without a rating, while a further four have finished among the each-way positions.
Given that Talent’s rating of 114 is higher than that of Leading Light and Cap O’Rushes, and that she is no less entitled to improve than this pair, she would have to be the preferred pick of the trio at 12/1.
This is certainly an each-way price worth taking considering she will go off shorter on race day once a confirmed runner. For now there are some doubts about her participation because of the ground.
Ladbrokes are offering non runner no bet on all St Leger runners.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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