Trends tend to divide people when looking at races. But in the Cesarewitch there are a number of recurring patterns that simply cannot be ignored when searching for the winner at Newmarket.
Looking at the last 20 years of this race, trends lovers can narrow their search down drastically, with a trio of charges ticking the most boxes.
One thing that is clear when looking at previous Cesarewitch winners is that you need stamina in abundance. Every winner in the last 20 years had previously won over at least 1m6f, with 14 of the 20 having proven themselves over 2m.
Although winning last time out seems to have been a hindrance in recent years (only five of the last 20 winners won their previous race), a solid outing is important. Aaim to Prosper’s victory last year made him only the third horse in a decade to triumph after finishing out of the first four last time out.
Aaim to Prosper spoiled another trend with his second victory last year when carrying 9st 10lbs to victory. Only three winners in the previous 19 years had carried more than 9st 1lb.
Eighteen winners in the last two decades have been aged four or older. Although the only three-year-old currently entered in this year’s renewal is Miss Tiger Lily, it may pay to ignore the four-year-olds: Only a quartet of those twenty winners were aged four.
It looks vital to pay attention to those that have warmed up for this race nicely. Of the sample, 17 had run in the two months before, and 15 had run three or more times that season.
When applying the criteria to the possible runners, we are left with just three.
Jonny Delta (33/1) seems to save his best for north of the border, with all four his wins coming at Ayr and Musselburgh. He has twice won at 2m though on both good and heavy ground, so doesn’t look as reliant on conditions as some.
Hughie Morrison’s Cosimo De Medici (33/1) finished fourth in a Cesarewitch Trial over course and distance last time out, so could be primed for a big race. His record in big fields isn’t ideal though. Four runs in races with 20 or more runners has seen a best result of 13th. Morrison is however, fairly out of form. A second and a third are all he has to show for 16 runners in the last two weeks.
The one that looks the value selection is Seaside Sizzler (25/1). A consistent type, finishing in the top four on his last five starts, the six-year-old will love the drying ground and is one that looks certain to give you a good run for your money on the Rowley Mile. Although he has just one win to his name in the last two years, after a number of encouraging runs Ralph Beckett’s charge is due a place in the winners enclosure.
All odds and markets correct as of the date of publishing