Sky Lantern has been the superstar filly of the season and although the fact that only four runners have turned up for the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket is far from ideal, she should stamp her authority again for a third Group One success of the campaign.
Given her dominance, which has seen her triumph in both the 1,000 Guineas and then the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, it is somewhat of a surprise that Sky Lantern is not shorter than 4/5 to win the Falmouth Stakes.
The obvious problem here for the favourite is that she is best suited by a fast gallop and the chances of her getting this here are slim in such a small field.
Elusive Kate (5/2) is the only entrant that will really be keen to cut out the early running and she is the obvious danger if allowed to dictate with an uncontested lead.
She is rarely out of the first two in all-female races and is entitled to improve for finishing fourth in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in what was her seasonal reappearance.
Horses aged older than four have only taken this once in the last decade, which is a negative for five-year-old Giofra (9/2).
However, the only horse to snap this trend in the last decade was Soviet Song in 2005, who was landing the Falmouth Stakes for the second year in succession. This is something that Giofra is also attempting this year.
The other obvious negative for Giofra is that she has often been competing over further than 1m of late and this drop back in trip is unlikely to suit, while neither is the faster ground that will prevent her bringing her excess stamina into play.
Purr Along (33/1) is the major outsider and has disappointed the last twice, although she may have also needed her reappearance and didn’t really appreciate the heavy ground on her first flop.
If she repeats her run from when getting to within a neck of Certify last season, she could not be totally written off.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.