There are three main statistics that have been common among 1000 Guineas winners in the last decade and following these point to victory for Moonlight Cloud in the fillies’ Classic.
Moonlight Cloud is 5/1 in the 1000 Guineas odds and heads to Newmarket following a mightily impressively victory at France on her latest start.
The Classic has gone to France in two of the last three years, which could be significant, alongside the fact that the horse should be race sharp as the 1000 Guineas does not represent her seasonal reappearance.
However, what is most notable is that the victory came in a Group Three contest and nine of the last 11 1000 Guineas winners headed to Newmarket having already secured victory in group class.
Moonlight Cloud has won three times in four starts, with her one setback coming when finishing fourth on soft ground in a Group One at Longchamp in October.
This defeat is acceptable, however, as all of the last ten winners of the 1000 Guineas had only previously finished outside of the places on a maximum of one occasion.
The final statistic is an intriguing one bearing in mind that the 1000 Guineas is run over 1m.
Nine of the last 11 winners had never previously won over further than 7f and this could be an even bigger factor on quick ground.
Havant and Barefoot Lady are the other two runners in this year’s line-up that meet all three pieces of criteria and they could also represent good 1000 Guineas betting value at 13/2 and 16/1 respectively.
However, it is hard not to have been impressed with Moonlight Cloud’s victory a month ago and any repeat of this performance would make her extremely tough to beat.
A £30 stake on Moonlight Cloud winning the 1000 Guineas would return £330. New customers can sign up here for a free £30 bet.