To assist Ladbrokes customers in their betting endeavours for the July Cup at Newmarket, one of the sprinting jewels in the flat-racing calendar, the king is back to crunch those all-important numbers.
Below are all the trends you need to know about before placing some wonga on Newmarket’s Group 1 sprint highlight of the July meeting at 3.50 on Saturday 12th.
Three to five-year-olds have claimed the win in nine of the last 10 years
This stat is hardly a show stopper given the majority of the field is made up of this age-group though it does cast adrift a couple of the older animals. Only Les Arcs back in 2006 has bucked this trend in the race’s 45-year history. Time to wave 6-y-o Tropics (33/1) and 7-y-o double King’s Stand Stakes winner Sole Power at 7/1 goodbye then.
Six of the last 10 winners had finished in the first three last time out
Again, given this is one of Europe’s premier sprint races, you’d expect a high turnout of form horses and this is certainly the case at Newmarket, with no fewer than eight runners arriving fresh from victories. Nevertheless, our old friend Tropics as well as Astaire 16/1, Moviesta 20/1, Rex Imperator 20s, Darwin 33/1 and Jack Dexter 40/1 all get left behind here.
All of the last 10 winners had run within 30 days
This spells bad news for Wesley Ward’s stateside raider Undrafted (20/1) who could pay the price for rustiness, while the other casualty based on this hot streak is Spanish hope Noozhoh Canarias at 6/1 – 6th in the 2000 Guineas on his last appearance in May.
Nine of the last 10 winners have previously won over 6f or 7f
Another black mark against 5f king Sole Power, while Aidan O’Brien-trained Fountain Of Youth trips up here, having only bettered the field over 5f and found wanting when extended to 7f.
Nine of the last 10 winners had won a Group race and six out of 10 have finished in the top two in a Group 1
On this evidence we can kiss goodbye to Justice Day (25/1) who may find the company too exalted, while two more of O’Brien’s string here in the form of barely exposed 3-y-o Cougar Mountain (20/1) and well-fancied Due Diligence at 4/1.
Of those Group winners left in the hunt, only Diamond Jubilee Stakes winner and 5/2 favourite Slade Power has slipped a Group 1 victory under their belts. Meanwhile, Qatar Racing’s Hot Streak at 12/1 is the only other runner to have finished in the top two in the highest company.
Our pick: Slade Power at 5/2
Our E/W choice: Hot Streak @ 12/1
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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