Newmarket’s 1m1f Cambridgeshire tends to be a tricky betting heat, with at least 31 horses belting down the Rowley Mile in each of the past six renewals.
A whopping 35 runners are declared for this weekend’s event, but that means big prices abound.
The King of Stats jumped head first into the mire and emerged with a confident pick. Read on for the reveal…
Nine of the past 10 winners have been aged between three and five
Six-year-old Supaseus for Hughie Morrison in 2008 was the only horse to snap this streak over the last decade.
Educate, Bronze Angel, Chil The Kite, Stipulate, Bancnuanaheireann, Secret Art, Gabrial’s Kaka, Balmoral Castle, Knight Owl, Goodwood Mirage and Ginger Jack, all aged between six and nine, are deemed a bit long in the tooth to go on.
Nine of the past 10 winners have carried 9-2 or less to victory
With top weight coming in at a whopping 10lb higher than this mark, plenty fall at the second fence.
Farewell Gm Hopkins, Master The World, First Sitting, Oasis Fantasy, Carry On Deryck, Spark Plug, Celestial Path and Bravo Zolo, we barely knew ye.
Nine of the past 10 winners had finished in the first five on their preceding start
Richard Fahey’s 8/1 favourite Third Time Lucky squeaks past the King of Stats’ scythe here thanks to his fifth at York last time out, in what was admittedly a blanket finish, but others aren’t so lucky.
None of Lat Hawill, Azraff, Zhui Feng, Dark Red and Bastille Day hold the kind of recent form generally required of a Cambridgeshire winner.
Nine of the past 10 winners’ last runs came in the previous seven weeks
This stat appears to have been kept in mind, with only Stuart Williams’ Examiner falling foul having last been out in June.
Seven of the past 10 winners were drawn in Stall 11 or higher
Ode To Evening and Very Talented are the unlucky ones here in 5 and 8 respectively.
Six of the past 10 winners had either won or placed at Newmarket previously
Treasury Notes, Erik The Red, American Artist and Raising Sand haven’t even raced at this venue before, while Banksea failed to make the places in two previous runs round the Suffolk track.
Only one of the past 10 winners tasted victory in their previous race
We’re left with Third Time Lucky, 33/1 shot Interconnection and Dolphin Vista, though the latter’s victory at Beverley last time out puts paid to his chances here.
Only four horses have taken this at single-digit odds over the past decade, but the average SP has been less than 16/1, with just two runners emerging victorious at higher prices.
Despite barely making it through a couple of the King of Stats’ metrics, it’s tough to look past 8/1 jolly and 2015 winner Third Time Lucky defending his title.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.