French fillies have enjoyed a fine 1000 Guineas record in recent runnings and our cross-channel cousins’ chief contender looks overpriced for the 2015 edition.
They haven’t travelled over in numbers, sending just 10 representatives to Newmarket since 2003, but of that select squad three have been victorious with a further two snaring minor medals.
Ervedya is this year’s likeliest raider and at 12/1 she ticks plenty of boxes as a value alternative to Found, currently 2/1 favourite for the Rowley Mile Classic.
Over this season and the last Jean-Claude Rouget’s daughter of Siyouni has put in a brace of strong performances in races that have traditionally advertised the chances of French 1000 Guineas winners.
As a two-year-old, she placed against the colts in the Group 1 Prix Morny, just as her compatriot Newmarket heroines Special Duty (2010) and Natagora (2008) had done before her.
She then landed the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Lafitte on her seasonal return, a race that all three French-trained Newmarket winners in the last decade had taken on the way to Classic success.
That prep run means that punters can have a greater degree of confidence that Ervedya has trained on than Aidan O’Brien’s market leader (not seen in 2015), one of only two horses left in the entries with a higher Racing Post Rating than Ervedya.
The other is Tiggy Wiggy, the sprint star juvenile who did little to convince she stayed 7f in the Fred Darling at Newbury recently.
Ervedya also has previous with Found, having run her to two-and-a-half lengths in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1m at Longchamp last summer.
She arguably had every right to be closer to the winner that day too, having had to expend a good deal of energy early on in trying to counter the effects of a wide draw, a notorious millstone at the track.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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