Looking at trends can help punters substantially narrow down their search for a Grand National winner and by taking into account the performances of many of the most recent victors, Big Fella Thanks is expected to run well at Aintree.
Of the six main statistics that have been the most common among former winners, Big Fella Thanks fits in with all of them and this makes him a solid Grand National tip at 16/1.
Perhaps the two biggest trends when looking at former winners are the weight the handicapper has set them to carry at Aintree and how successful they had previously been in stamina-sapping contests.
All of the Grand National winners since Gay Trip in 1970 have arrived at Aintree having previously won over three miles, while no horse since Red Rum has carried more than 11st 5lb to victory.
Big Fella Thanks has previously won the Sky Bet Chase over three miles and runs off 11st 1lb this year.
Furthermore, he has shown he is no novice over the larger obstacles by being a veteran of more than ten chase races, while his jumping can be relied upon as he has only ever fallen once during his career.
The other statistics he follows is that he should be in tip-top condition at Aintree having run inside the last 48 days, while being a nine-year-old, he should have the mix of experience and speed necessary to win a Grand National.
Another positive in his favour is that he has previously experienced the Grand National fences when finishing fourth behind Don’t Push It 12 months ago.
There are many fancied runners in the Grand National odds who do not tick all of these boxes, including The Midnight Club, who has only run in eight chases, while Silver By Nature has fallen twice in his career.
The Midnight Club is a well-fancied Grand National tip at 8/1, while Silver By Nature can be backed at 14/1.
A £20 stake on Big Fella Thanks winning the Grand National would return £320. New customers can sign up here to take advantage of free bets totalling up to £60.