King of Stats: Trends favour a Stewards’ Cup market leader
Published:
The Stewards Cup is not only the most eagerly-awaited sprint contest at Glorious Goodwood, but is also up there as among the biggest of the entire Flat season.
With 28 runners lining up, settling on a winner can be a tricky challenge, but our statistical guru has run the rule over recent renewals to find the trends most common among previous winners.
See his selection below:
Eight of the last 10 winners carried a minimum of 9st 1lb to victory
This immediately discounts over half of the 28-runner field, with 16 entrants allocated a weight no higher than 9st.
These are Discussiontofollow, Rivellino, Ajjaadd, Gamesome, Another Wise Kid, Boomerang Bob, Greeb, Barracuda Boy, Toofi, Basil Berry, sole three-year-old and favourite Magical Memory, Suzi’s Connoisseur, Related, Tatlisu, Kimberella and Firmdecisions
Horses aged six or older have a poor record
106 horses aged six or older have run in the Stewards’ Cup in the past decade with two winning. Alternatively, 144 have taken part aged four or five and provided eight victors.
Top-weight Tropics is seven and so is removed from our list, alongside Jack Dexter, Ruwaiyan, Ashpan Sam, Dinkum Diamond and Clear Spring.
A stall in the middle of the track has proved beneficial
Not only have seven of the last eight winners come from a double-figure stall number, but eight of the last 10 winners were drawn between 10 and 19.
This is bad news for Robot Boy in stall 20, Poyle Vinnie (4), Lancelot Du Lac (5) and Ninjago (6).
This leaves only Huntsmans Close and Algar Lad and both have previous winning form over 6f, like all of the last 13 Stewards’ Cup winners.
Algar Lad is best price with Ladbrokes for victory 33/1, but preference is for Huntsmans Close on the basis that he has run at Goodwood before.
Six of the last 13 winners had previous course experience and Huntsmans Close was sixth at the Glorious meeting last year. George Baker’s mount is 7/1 to triumph this time.
Algar Lad has never previously visited the track and also needs a career-best performance to win the Stewards’ Cup.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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