With the British weather finally sorting itself out, Glorious Goodwood looks to have rolled round at just the right time to justify its famous moniker, and the King Of Stats has cast a keen eye over the Summer Stakes handicap on the opening day.
It was tough, but a sound betting strategy has been identified after much whittling:
11 of the last 13 winners were aged either four or five
A stat that takes care of some of the relative veterans in West Sussex, with six of the current 14-runner field deemed a bit past it.
Elidor, Francis Of Assisi, Arch Villain, First Mohican, Havana Beat and Qewy, a Charlie Appleby entrant and 7/1 second favourite with Ladbrokes, fall at the first hurdle.
11 of the last 13 winners had raced within the previous four weeks
Half of the horses left can’t make it past this barrier, with a few more squeaking in by the skin of their teeth.
Gang Warfare, A Soldier’s Life, My Reward and 5/1 jolly King Bolete limp out, leaving Fun Mac, Tawdeea, Notarised and Gold Prince to fight on.
Incidentally, the latter trio went against each other at Haydock earlier this month, with Tawdeea, 10/1 to bag the Summer Stakes, running out the winner.
11 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 1m4f before
Had Gold Prince made up the 1½ lengths needed to reel in Tawdeea that day, Sylvester Kirk’s charge would be galloping on through this gauntlet of stats, but no victories at the required distance sees him fall by the wayside.
Eight of the last 13 winners carried 9-7 or more in weight
With a feather-light 9-3 to lug around, that’s the end of Notarised’s challenge.
There’s little to choose between Tawdeea and Fun Mac on the stats, although the former’s last-time out victory only puts him with three of the last 13 Summer Stakes winners, and none of the past five, leaving one.
Summer Stakes King Of Stats: Fun Mac @ 10/1
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.