The Open betting tips: Lowry can land Claret Jug for second time
Published:
The Open betting tips and odds
Rory McIlroy starts as the 13/2 favourite to win the 2023 Open Championship which begins at the Royal Liverpool Golf Club on Thursday.
The Northern Irishman won the tournament the last time it was staged at Hoylake in 2014 and heads to Merseyside in excellent form after back-to-back birdies on the last two holes gave him a one-shot victory over Robert MacIntyre at the Scottish Open on Sunday.
We’re also in pretty good form with our golf betting tips having picked the last two major winners; Brooks Koepka in the US PGA at 16/1 and US Open champion Wyndham Clark at a juicy 60/1.
We have picked out another five players in our Open betting tips for which Ladbrokes are offering 10 each-way places.
Major test awaits at Hoylake
Hoylake has been reduced to a par-71 since McIlroy beat Rickie Fowler here by two shots nine years ago, with the long 10th now a par-four and the back nine the longest in Open history.
A new hole has also been added, the par-three 17th known as Little Eye which Padraig Harrington described as “pivotal” and “dramatic”, so we could be in for a treat this week when Cam Smith defends his title.
Last year, the Australian was well on the way to becoming world number one after a one-shot victory over American Cameron Young but made the decision to defect to LIV Golf just six weeks after his first major triumph.
Smith felt playing the week before at the Scottish Open, where he finished 10th, played a key part in his success at St Andrews but as an outcast LIV golfer unable to play in the co-sanctioned event, his price is perhaps too short at 12/1 to win this weekend despite winning at the Centurion Club a couple of weeks ago.
Playing the week before has produced a winner in seven of the last 11 editions and the last 10 champions have all been inside the world’s top 40, so the focus will be on those factors with our Open betting tips.
Cases can be made for any of the players at the top of the market, especially world number one Scottie Scheffler, whose record in elite golf since 2021 is sensational.
The American has finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 11 major appearances, which included a 2022 US Masters success, but he finished outside the top 20 at St Andrews last year and despite an excellent third place at the Renaissance, 7/1 seems a bit skinny and we’ll look elsewhere for our Open predictions, starting with Shane Lowry.
Lowry has credentials to close out at Open
The affable Irishman is already an Open champion having won by six strokes at Royal Portrush four years ago and he was an excellent 12th in North Berwick at the weekend when only David Lingmerth finished ahead of him in the strokes gained: putting metric.
Lowry finished inside the top 20 in all three of this year’s majors in the United States where his form has been pretty good since a 12th-placed finish in the US PGA at Oak Hill a couple of months ago.
Open champions tend to have won in the same year and while that’s not the case with Lowry, he held off McIlroy and Jon Rahm to win the PGA Championship at Wentworth last September, so he looks worth chancing at 22/1 as the first of the Open betting tips bearing in mind he was ninth at Hoylake in 2014.
Tiger Woods famously plotted his way to victory at Hoylake in 2006 when he used the driver just once over the four days and he is one of 11 Americans that have lifted the Claret Jug since the turn of the century. More recently four of the last nine winners have come from across the pond, so we’re keen to have a few of them on board in our high five, starting with Max Homa at 40/1.
Six of the last 10 winners have come from the world’s top 10, so it’s encouraging that Homa is ranked eighth and he was just four off the lead heading into the final round last week but struggled to cope with the windy condition and closed with a 72.
That was still good enough for 12th place and he was third for scrambling which could prove to be a key skill-set this week.
Homa is a PGA Tour winner this year having tasted success in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in January and although his major record leaves a lot to be desired, this could be the week he breaks the mould.
One of the best-value Open betting tips for the week could be Homa’s compatriot Brian Harman, who has performed well at The Open in the last two years and also posted a top 12 in Scotland where he proved he can cope with windy conditions
The left-hander shot 68-68-66 in his final three rounds to finish sixth at St Andrews 12 months ago, so was perhaps left cursing what might have been after an opening 73 on the Old Course.
Harman fulfils the criteria of being inside the top 40 and although he is not the longest, he is just outside the top 20 for ball-striking and not many on the PGA Tour find as many fairways which will prove to be massive advantage with the knee to waist-high fescue awaiting those who stray from the fairway.
Although his last victory came six years ago, his US form is excellent, posting a runners-up finish at the Travelers Championship with a top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a fortnight ago, so he looks a decent each-way option at 80/1 – just like Robert MacIntyre, who was denied the Scottish Open title by McIlroy’s stunning finish in the closing two holes.
Hot Scot looks good to trot
MacIntyre produced one of the shots of the year at the last – the hardest hole on the course – to set up a birdie chance which he took to give fans hope of a home winner only for McIlroy to deliver a knockout blow with a brilliant one-two combination.
A runners-up spot in East Lothian moved MacIntrye up to sixth in the DP World Tour Race to Dubai and although he is just outside the world’s top 50, the way he handled the wind on Sunday means he enters the reckoning at 50/1.
Despite staying away from Scotland to compete at the John Deere Classic where he finished just outside the top 20, Chris Kirk completes our Open Betting tips at 150/1.
The improving American has a dynamic short game, sits inside the world’s top 40 and is a 2023 winner having secured his first title in eight years at the Honda Classic.
A decent scrambler, Kirk may not have length on his side but he was 19th on his Open debut at Hoylake in 2014 and enjoyed top-30 finishes at this year’s US Masters and USPGA, so he’s starting to make an impression on the major circuit.
Zach Johnson also decided to play at the John Deere when he won at St Andrews in 2015, so there is history to support those who skipped playing a links course in the build-up to the tournament.
The Open Championship Info
Where: Royal Liverpool Golf Club
When: July 20-23, 2023
How to watch: Sky Sports
All odds and markets correct as of date of publication
