Premier League relegation: Promoted teams still favourites for the drop
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Promoted clubs still favourites in Premier League relegation odds
Sean Dyche's Everton are 50/1 in the Premier League relegation odds, despite being hit with two points deductions this season.
The Toffees were initially docked 10 points in mid-November for breaching the Premier League’s financial rules which saw them slip to 19th in the table but wins against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea shortly afterwards saw lifted the gloom at Goodison Park.
However, several months later, their ban was reduced to just six points, giving the Toffees some much needed breathing room in the relegation battle.However, just last week, Everton were given another two point punishment for a second breach. Despite that, they remain out of the relegation zone, and after a shock win over Liverpool, are seen as likely to be playing Premier League football next year.
The promoted clubs occupy the bottom three spots and are favourites to make an immediate return to the Championship, so let’s look at the main contenders for the drop now that the majority of teams have just eight games left to play.
Sheffield United
The Blades sacked Paul Heckingbottom after the 5-0 drubbing by relegation rivals Burnley last year and appointed former manager Chris Wilder as his replacement. Although the ex-Middlesbrough and Watford boss lost his first match in charge – a 2-0 defeat by Liverpool – James McAtee secured a 1-0 victory over Brentford the following weekend as United went level on points with Burnley at the foot of the table.
However, since then, things have turned around as Sheffield United fans would have hoped. With 34 games having been played, the Blades have picked up just 16 points, meaning they’ll finish the season with just over 17 points if they continue on that trajectory for the remainder of season.
In fact, they'll go down as early as this weekend if results don't go their way, which is why the bookies have suspended betting for the Blades to get relegated this year, with it seeming like a certainty at this stage.
Burnley
Burnley had an impressive season in the Championship last campaign, where Vincent Kompany got his Burnley side playing some truly brilliant football. However, that hasn’t translated to the Premier League, with the Clarets having picked up just 23 points at this stage in the season.
The bookies think Burnley have a better shot than Sheffield United of beating the drop, with odds of 1/12, but they’re still second-favourites to go down. The expectation amongst many is that they won’t have enough in the tank to pull out a miracle and remain in the Premier League next season, which is why they’re one of the front-runners in our relegation odds.
Luton
Luton may be sitting in 18th placed this year, but especially at Kenilworth Road, Rob Edwards’ side have been one of the most difficult sides in the league to play against. They led Man City 1-0 at home when the two teams met in 2023, with Arsenal relying on a last-minute winner to beat the Hatters last year too. Luton even took points off Liverpool, with Luis Diaz scoring a late goal to make the score 1-1 when the two teams met in November.
Performances only get you so far though, and if the season ended today, Luton would be relegated back down to the Championship. However, with odds of 1/3, the bookies clearly think there’s still a chance that Edwards and co beat the drop.
Nottingham Forest
Steve Cooper started the season as Nottingham Forest manager, but it’s now Nuno Espirito Santo at the helm. The former Wolves manager has seen his Forest side into 17th place, equal on points with Luton who occupy the final spot in the relegation zone.
An added off-pitch wrinkle to add to the equation was the points deduction that was Forest’s way as a result of breaching the Premier League’s financial rules. In March, Forest were docked four points, which sent them into the relegation zone, but a win against Fulham in April changed that.
Everton
Everton would 14th, ahead of the likes of Crystal Palace and Brentford if they weren’t given a six point deduction for breaking financial rules last year, as well as being handed a further two-point punishment in April. However, Dyche’s side are instead in 16th place, eight points ahead of Luton.
We also looked at the Premier League title odds, with Liverpool falling to 33/1 after a shock loss to Everton this week, despite still being second in the table.
View the latest Premier League odds
All odds and markets correct as of date of publication
