UCL: 5/1 is great value on only one English group winner


While three of the four English teams in the Champions League currently top their group a tricky fixture schedule could see that number fall as the knock-out stages approach.

Unbeaten Manchester United lead group A while London rivals Chelsea and Arsenal are sitting pretty in groups E and F respectively.

Manchester City are already guaranteed qualification but trail leaders Bayern Munich in Group D.

However, despite the promising positions held by the country’s representatives in Europe’s top competition the value in the ‘Number of English Group Winners’ market appears to be backing a total of one at 5/1.

United may top their group but David Moyes’ side have looked far from convincing in picking up their eight points after failing to win both of their away games so far.

This, coupled with the deflating nature of their 2-2 draw with Cardiff at the weekend, is hardly the best preparation for a trip to the BayArena to face a Bayer Leverkusen side that has lost just two of its last 11 at home in the Champions League.

Should United again fail to win on the road, their final clash with Shakhtar Donetsk will carry such significance it is likely to be a cagey affair, while the Germans can round off their group stage in relative comfort against winless Real Sociedad.

United’s neighbours City look set to take their group to the wire with whipping boys Plzen their next opponents. Leaders Bayern Munich travel to Moscow to play CSKA next and while that is by no means an easy trip their 3-0 win in the reverse fixture points to another victory here.

As such, Manuel Pellegrini’s men are likely to need a win at the Allianz Arena in the final group match in order to go through as winners.

Arsenal face a similar predicament in that a home match against winless Marseille – which should provide a routine three points – is followed by an away encounter with biggest rivals for top spot Napoli.

Both sides are locked on nine points at present and Arsene Wenger will hope that the Italians fail to win against Dortmund in order to boost his own side’s chances. However, Napoli had the beating of the Germans in the first round of games and will head to the Westfalestadion with confidence.

Chelsea then look the most likely of the English sides to top their group with a healthy three point advantage over Schalke. Having already played the Germans twice Jose Mourinho’s men enjoy a more comfortable run in with Basel away and Steaua Bucharest at home their remaining fixtures.

The Blues lost to Basel first time out but the west London outfit have since picked up in form and look a far more dangerous prospect this time round.

Those expecting United, City and the Gunners to join Chelsea as group winners can back all four at 25/1 but with fixtures going against them the Stamford Bridge club look likely to be alone in their glory.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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