Pitchside with Ferris: New Zealand v Ireland and much more…
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With the knock out stages of the Rugby World Cup almost upon us the excitement is reaching fever pitch among rugby fans with some mouthwatering fixtures this weekend.
Earlier this week we caught up with our man in the know Stephen Ferris to get his thoughts on the quarter-finals.
New Zealand v Ireland, Saturday @ 11:15am UK time
A Scotsman walks into the pub, normally an Irishman, a Welshman and an Englishman are there too but they are still in Japan. Well for at least another week anyway!
Team selection will tell us a lot about how Ireland are going to play so I am intrigued to see who Joe Schmidt picks for this knockout game.
There are a few big calls to make.
At full back, you have the reliable Rob Kearney who always delivers in big games and as we all know is one of the best in the world under the high ball. Or do you roll the dice and select Jordan Larmour who has been one of the standout performers for Ireland so far in this World Cup.
His ability to beat defenders with hiselectric footwork and acceleration is something that can spark a huge moment ina big game like this. Does Joe go with the steady hand or the fearlessyouth…? Rather Joe than me!
On the wing you will probably have Jacob Stockdale and Keith Earls, but Andrew Conway has been playing some of the best rugby of his career and I think he could be a smart call, however Earls’ experience is vital in this clash.
In the centre it looks likeRobbie Henshaw will take the place of the suspended Bundee Aki. But Henshaw hasn’t playedmuch rugby in the last couple of months and that is always a concern,especially in such a crucial match.
Peter O’Mahony could start in place of Tadhg Beirne because we all know Joeusually goes back to his tried and tested. O’Maghony has been tested by the All Blacksbefore and came out as the man of the match.
I think Ireland are the best defensive team in the tournament. If we remember back to that game in Chicago where the Irish defence had unbelievable intensity, accuracy and commitment, the New Zealand team couldn’t deal with us. Games are won or lost in defence. Can Ireland deliver that type of performance again? We are all hoping so.
Tactics wise, first and foremost Ireland need to win the gain line. They have only averaged 2.8m per carry which is the lowest by any of the quarter final teams. NZ/SA are averaging 4.5m per carry which is a significant difference.
It makes Sexton’s job a lot easier if hehas front foot ball, so I’m expecting a big shift from the Irish forwards toprovide this. If this doesn’t happen there is only going to be one outcomeunfortunately, and that’s the reality of this test match in my opinion.
New Zealand are playing somegreat rugby. They have had a two-week break which is a lot of time toprepare whereas Ireland have a seven-day turnaround. Victories against theAll Blacks don’t come around too often, but Ireland have had recent successagainst them which will fill every Irish fan with hope and confidence that wecan pull this off.
However, the game in Chicago and the Autumn international at the Aviva stadium probably didn’t rate that highly on the Kiwi’s priority list as there was nothing on the line for them. Does this matter? Well the history books show two wins and the All Blacks will not be wanting that number to change to three.
We must remember this NZ team are goingfor three World Cups in a row which is really something to admire, I wouldn’tbe betting against them.
England v Australia, Saturday @ 8:15am UK time
England not having to play their last group game has given them plenty of time to cool off coming into the quarter final. I think they will be in a much better place going into this game and they will be ready to rock and roll come that first whistle.
Wales beat Australia and England are a much more powerful team then Wales. I think England will come out on top due to the raw power they possess, and the game management Owen Farrell brings on these big occasions.
It will be interesting to see if BillyVunipola is fit enough to start this match after going over on his ankle in thelast game.
But if he is not then the tacklingmachine Mark Wilson will wear the number 8 jersey, and this fella won’t let youdown. What a player!
I predict England are going to win thisgame by a score or two and assert their dominance upfront. Mentally I thinkAustralia are fragile, can Eddie Jones break Michael Cheika and bring England to a World Cupsemifinal? I think he can.
Wales v France, Sunday @ 08:15am UK time
The French have had a two-week break andare typically renowned for having limited training so maybe this French teamwill come into their quarter final matchup with Wales undercooked.
They are so unpredictable, but this alsomakes them a dangerous team, or does it? we said the same about Scotland.
If they want to get a result againstWales, they are going to have to play 80 minutes of amazing rugby that wehaven’t seen from a French side for what feels like years.
Well it probably has been years, butwith poor discipline and a sporadic kicking game I feel the French lads aregoing to come up short.
Wales are a very well coached team, evenif they only went out and played at 70%-80% they could come out on top inthough match.
Players like Dan Biggar, Jonathan Davies and HadleighParks will make it tough for the French to break this Welsh teamdown. I expect this to be a resounding Welsh victory.
Japan v South Africa, Sunday @ 11:15am UK time
I can’tsee Japan going all theway and I think they will be beaten this weekendagainst South Africa. World rankings are there for a reason and I thinkSouth Africa will be too good for the Brave Blossoms this weekend.
Last week against Scotland felt likeJapan’s World Cup final, maybe all the emotion will drive them on to a greatperformance against the Springboks. However, I feel they will run out of gasand energy to this HUGE South African team.
South Africa havedominated physically against every team they haveplayed and even with the heart and passion Japan play with,for me South Africa have too much power.
When it comes to the scrum, mauland line-out time I think there will be a massive dominance by theSpringboks, I see them putting a halt on the Japanese bid to wina Rugby World Cup on home soil.
But I hope I’m wrong.
Bundee Aki’s redcard
This is extremely disappointingfor Bundee Aki himself. He is not someone who is classed asa dirty player.
He got his timing wrong when he made thetackle, was three inches too high and caught the Samoanplayer in the head.
It was a split-second reaction the way the ball bounced up. There was no intent that Bundee was trying to hurt Seuteni. For me, the right decision was made for him to be given a red card. As we have seen during this World Cup, the standard three-week ban has been handed out and his campaign is over.
There have been seven red cardsdistributed this World Cup compared to one red card in the 2015 World Cup.
Fortunately for Ireland, Robbie Henshawwas able to get significant game time under his belt and could be starting inthe center alongside Gary Ringrose.
Scotland
At the beginning of the tournament I hada suspicion that Scotland would be a dark horse. The reason being wasbecause head coach Gregor Townsend and a lot of their players were coming outsaying they had the best camp, best warm up and they had great preparation cominginto the tournament.
They felt like they had a greatgame plan, and everyone was in peak physical shape. Then they wentout against Ireland and got completely obliterated.
In the Japan game I think the teamlacked in belief. They were fourteen points down at half time and it didn’tseem like the Scotland team had the best preparation, coaching or that everyonewas in their best physical shape.
When they fall behind in games it takesa ridiculous performance like the game, they had against England inthe Six Nations where they were 35 points down and ended up coming back to drawthe game.
With some guys like Greig Laidlawand John Barkley ending their international careers, I think it is timefor Gregor Townsend to bring in some fresh blood. But that is if hegets the chance, his time could be up after this woeful showing by his Scotlandteam.
I feel they let themselves down notmaking it to a quarter Final. They were capable of it and they are goinghome with their tail between their legs.
My top game towatch in the Quarter Finals
The game I am most looking forward towatching is New Zealand v Ireland. Every Irish fan will be hoping for amassive upset, it is the topic on everybody’s lips. If everybody believes andthe players believe that they do have a chance of creating an upset, who’s tosay it won’t happen?
New Zealand might feel the pressure ifIreland make a good start and get three or six points ahead. It could settlethe team down and help them grow into the game. Ireland are usually good frontrunners and I hope they get off to a fast start on Saturday.
Ireland really need to play at 100%.Johnny Sexton needs to play 80 minutes and Connor Murray needs to play for aslong as he can. Guys like Rory Best, Ian Henderson, James Ryan and Peter O’Mahony need to put in a top performance.
The players, coaches and management muchlike myself can’t wait for the game to come around and get started. The anxietyI am feeling is horrendous, this is boom or bust for all us crazy Irish Rugbyfans.
But I will finish with this. I feel thatNew Zealand are the best team in the tournament and will go on to claim gloryin this World Cup. So unfortunately, I predict an Irish loss, but one thing isfor sure, the lads won’t go down without a fight. And as we know, every boxerhas a chance.
My winningteams
- England v Australia – England win
- New Zealand v Ireland – New Zealand win
- Wales v France – Wales win
- Japan v South Africa – South Africa win
Stephen
