The statistics that say Jo Konta can shock Serena Williams tonight
Serena Williams has seen it all over the years, but she’s never met Britain’s Johanna Konta on court. And ahead of this Australian Open quarter-final clash, there’s every reason to suggest the great American ought to be concerned about her fearless opponent.
As world number two, and a 22-time Slam champion, Serena is understandably favourite to win at 1/2.
That leaves Konta as the 13/8 underdog, but that price symbolises the incredible rise of the Sydney-born Brit over the last 18 months.
Indeed at the time of writing, over two thirds of all bets staked on the outcome of this match have backed a Konta win.
And a look at the comparative statistics of the two players so far in Melbourne suggests that a famous British win could well be on the cards.
While both players have yet to drop a set, it’s Konta who has been the more efficient, conceding five games fewer than Serena.
Given that Konta has had to face two of the world’s top-30, including former number one Caroline Wozniacki, that’s no mean feat.
Serena edges the winners 110 to 97, but the American has been error-prone.
With 40 per cent more mistakes, Williams has made 125 errors, compared to Konta’s 72.
And then we get into the serves.
Konta is achieving a 65 per cent first serve success rate, leading Serena on 55 per cent.
That correlates across the double faults too, with the 25-year-old’s seven less than half of the American’s 17.
Konta is also heading the first serves won at 80 per cent – Serena 76 – and the second serves won too at 53 to 46.
All told, it makes very impressive reading for the Brit.
And if you add Serena’s sizeable number of unforced errors to Konta’s greater service success, you quickly have a recipe for her biggest career win yet.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing