Clinton v Trump: Surprise election states in play for Democrats
With Ladbrokes pricing up markets on all 50 US states ahead of November’s Presidential Election, we’ve had a look at a few where the Republicans are surprisingly good value to win, despite being odds on.
Hillary Clinton doesn’t need any of them to beat Donald Trump if she simply retains the Democrats current share of electoral votes accrued under President Obama four years ago, so the bookies seeing these areas as somewhat contestable suggests trouble for the GOP.
A Republican governor, two Republican senators (one of them former presidential candidate John McCain) and a five-four split of GOP to Democrats in the House of Representatives.
Trump struggling in Arizona, which has voted Democrat just once since 1952, surely gives an indication as to which way this race is tilting.
The record isn’t quite as bad for the Democrats here, with Georgia voting blue thrice in the past 10 tries, but the only time they’ve done so since Jimmy Carter 36 years ago was when Bill Clinton swept to power in something of a landslide, in terms of states won at least, in 1992.
If Trump can’t hold this territory the GOP are in for a long night.
Having been the consummate swing state, failing to predict the president just once in 90 years, Missouri went against Obama twice, but some recent polls have put Hillary ahead while others see it as a tight race.
No Democrat has been preferred here since Carter’s only victory in 1976, with none bettering Bill’s five-point deficit in the state since 1996.
Why aren’t the GOP shorter? A recent poll has Trump and Hillary tied, although the fact that the Democratic party paid for it smells a bit.
An extremely interesting race, as evidenced by another couple of names popping up in the betting.
McMullin is fascinating here, as a Mormon graduate of Brigham Young University and Utah native, who could yet grab endorsement from the likes of 2012 GOP candidate Mitt Romney.
The former chief policy director of the House Republican Conference is essentially a #NeverTrump spoiler currently going round the country attempting to whip up enough signatures to make ballots.
Snatching Utah, which last voted Democrat in 1964, appears to be McMullin’s fantasy objective. His presence could cause unforeseeable problems.
Very unlikely to switch this time, but could in 2020 if the GOP keep going in the same direction.
Hillary leads Trump 49-45 with under 65s, but the strong Republican hold on OAPs should see them through.
Septuagenarian Trump is ahead by around six points in recent polls, hardly spectacular in a state that has gone double-digits red at the last four elections.
Remarkable to think this state is only 1/20 to go Republican considering it has every year since 1964, with Mitt Romney crushing Obama here by a whopping 22 points four years ago.
According to the latest KSN News/SurveyUSA poll, that support has been whittled away to 5%.
That’s how badly Trump appears to be doing.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.