Support holds up for Cameron and the UK to remain in the EU
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It’s set to be the biggest UK political story of the year, but for the time being, it looks David Cameron would find himself seeing his country remain in the EU, if and when a referendum is called.
Ladbrokes are 1/2 the referendum result is remain, a price which has largely held in recent months, with a leave decision at 13/8.
A recent poll from ICM across the continent found that of the nine European nations asked if the UK should remain a part of the EU, an average of 53 per cent across each nation said yes, with an average 20 per cent saying the UK should leave.
Further polls suggest that backing a remain decision at 1/2 is the way to go. According to the Guardian, of the 21 most recent polls, 13 have the UK staying put with its estranged continental allies, with four preferring an exit, and four heading to a tie.
If there is concern for David Cameron and co, it is with recent news that business support to stay in the EU has fallen slightly to 62 per cent from 74 per cent six months ago.
According to a survey by Deloitte, the number backing a ‘Brexit’ has crept up to six per cent from two per cent.
The Prime Minister is yet to announce when any referendum will take place, but it could come as early as June is Cameron’s treaty negotiations go smoothly at February’s EU summit.
A referendum this year remains the most likely outcome according to the bookies, with Ladbrokes pricing a 2016 vote at 2/5, with next year at 7/4.
Such has been the Prime Minister’s confidence that he will hold a referendum by the end of 2017, you can get very long odds on a 2018 vote at 50/1 and 2019 at 66/1.
And what of no referendum at all? Those who think Cameron won’t get the job done can back it at 16/1.
If a referendum goes ahead, it doesn’t look like being a landslide either way, with a leave vote percentage of 40-50 per cent at 10/11 the most likely according to Ladbrokes.
The most likely remain vote percentage points to a narrow call too, with the 5/2 on a 50-55 per cent the favourite right now.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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