King Of Stats selects Cotai Glory in Scarbrough Stakes
The Scarbrough Stakes is a 5f Listed contest that has been used as a stepping stone to much bigger things by recent winners, with Prohibit, Sole Power and Mecca’s Angel all triumphing in the last five years and going on to prove themselves in the highest echelon of sprinters through successes at Group 1 level.
There are 12 entries this year aiming to follow suit and our resident King of Stats has run the rule over former winners in a bid to find which of this year’s field has the most in common.
Nine of the last 10 winners had previously triumphed over 5f
Given the need for speed in this contest, it is no surprise that all barring Strike The Deal in 2009 in the past 10 years had tasted victory previously over the Scarbrough Stakes trip.
Based on this trend, the Queen’s Touchline is omitted from the shortlist as her only previous success came over 6f.
Nine of the last 10 winners failed to win on their previous start
Punters have to look back to Celtic Mill in 2006 to find the last winner of this to have also triumphed last time out and his past success came when sent off as a 1/2 favourite in a five-runner contest.
Monsieur Joe victory in a Listed race in Ireland last time is bad news for his prospects and so he is discounted, alongside Field Of Vision following his win in an all-weather maiden.
Nine of the last 10 winners lugged at least 9st 9lb to victory
Mecca’s Angel bucked a big trend last year when carrying just 9st 5lb, but this is a race dominated by the higher weights.
Holly Shiftwell and Sign Of The Kodiac look to be weighted too lightly to triumph this year.
All of the last 10 winners were officially rated in three digits
It clearly takes a certain amount of class to win this, with the lowest rated winner being Galeota in the second of his consecutive successes in 2008 when rated 101.
Brother Tiger is officially rated only 87 this time and so is comfortably removed from the shortlist.
All of the last six winners have been aged between three and five
A horse on the upgrade with further improvement left in them has been the key to picking a winner in recent years.
This rules out a few with the veteran Kingsgate Native now 10, Medicean Man nine and both Desert Law and Steps aged seven.
Only two remain following these statistics – Speed Hawk and Cotai Glory.
Preference is for Cotai Glory, who should have won at this Doncaster meeting last year in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes, until the saddle of jockey George Baker slipped in the shadow of the finishing post.
The three-year-old is also considerably down in class here, having run on unfavourable soft ground in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York last time.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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