King Of Stats – Toe The Line conforms to most Ebor rules
Published:
The final day of the Ebor Festival at York brings the race that the meeting is named after, with the best part of £200,000 on offer for the winner of the 1m6f handicap.
In an attempt to up your own profits in the race, here is some assistance in finding the winner, using common statistics shared by former victors:
Every winner barring one since 1978 has been aged no older than six
The one horse to defy this statistic is the legendary Sea Pigeon, best known for his National Hunt exploits in winning two Champion Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
This is bad news for the bottom pair on the racecard, the well-fancied eight-year-old Clondaw Warrior and Litigant, meaning both are wiped from the shortlist.
11 of the last 13 winners broke from a double-figure stall
High numbers have ruled the roost in recent years, while the first four home last year all starting from a stall of 10 or higher.
Those unfavourably drawn low this time and discounted are Arabian Comet, John Reel, Wicklow Brave, Angel Gabrial, Wadi Al Hattawi and Watersmeet.
No winner since 1979 has carried more than 9st 4lb to victory
Sea Pigeon is the ultimate trends buster in the Ebor, as he is also the only horse in the race’s history to shoulder more than 9st 4lb to victory, which was the weight of Mutual Regard 12 months ago.
This eliminates the bulk of the 2015 Ebor field, with Quest For More, Havana Beat, Astronereus, Field Of Athenry, Ajman Bridge, Arab Dawn, Suegioo, Excellent Result, Notarised and Nearly Caught from the list of logical winners.
After just three statistics the field has already been trimmed to three – Fun Mac, Toe The Line and Quick Jack.
Eight of the last 13 winners had already had three races or more in the same season
Race fitness has been key in recent years, with those that have campaigned lightly not tending to fair particularly well.
Quick Jack’s only start came in the Chester Cup and so he is dismissed, while Fun Mac has run twice this season.
This leaves Toe The Line as the most likely winner of the Ebor and he also has the benefit of Jamie Spencer in the saddle, who has triumphed in this twice in the past eight years on board Purple Moon and Dirar.
Toe The Line can be backed at 20/1 to win the Ebor and the average starting price of the victor across the last 13 years is 22/1.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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