King Of Stats – Be Speculative in the City Of York Stakes
Gordon Lord Byron and Sirius Prospect are among the more high profile recent winners of the City of York Stakes and 18 horses are set to line up in 2015 in the hope of adding their name to the race’s roll of honour.
The King Of Stats has cast his eye through the entry list and selected which entrant has most in common with previous winners. His findings are below:
All but one of the last 12 winners were aged no older than five
Quito is the only horse to upset this trend since 2001, winning at the tender age of nine in 2006.
Intransigent is the veteran in the field this year at the age of six, but he is removed from the shortlist.
11 of the past 12 winners had failed to triumph on their most recent start
Entering the City of York Stakes on a winning sequence is not advised, despite the fact that this is a Listed contest and not a handicap.
So Beloved, Tanzeel, ante-post favourite Richard Pankhurst and Salateen are all looking for a two-timer here and so are ruled out.
Of the last 12 winners, 10 finished in the first five last time out
As much as a victory on the last start is generally bad news for this 7f renewal, so is a truly terrible result. The key is to find a horse who ran credibly in defeat.
Glory Awaits, Rene Mathis, Aktabantay, Bossy Guest, Toocoolforschool, Tupi and Fadhayyil all finished too far down the field last time to win this.
10 of the last 12 victors were making their debut at York
Course and distance form are two areas of a horse’s form which are regularly paid closer attention to in a bid to gain a betting advantage. The former of these has not proved especially useful in this contest in the past.
Emell and Heaven’s Guest have both run at York before without success, while Short Squeeze has prevailed on two of his three visits. However, all three are discounted.
This leaves Outback Traveller, Speculative Bid and Toofi and this trio also fit the criteria of eight of the past 12 winners in that they are four-year-olds.
Toofi falls short though, given that 10 of the last 12 winners had been seen at the racecourse at least four times already in the same season. Roger Varian’s runner has only run twice.
Speculative Bid retains the same mark of 102 as when a beaten favourite in third over the City of York trip at Newmarket last time. But he is worth another chance at 11/1given he stumbled out of the stalls that day.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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