King of Stats – Lathom the selection for Ebor day 2 opener
The DBS Premier Yearling Stakes kicks off day two of York’s Ebor festival, which has been won previously by future Group 1 winner Wootton Bassett and top-level competitor Bogart.
20 young pretenders are expected to line up this year and the King of Stats has been ruffling through his papers in the hope of uncovering the most likely winner:
All of the last 13 winners had been seen on the racecourse at least twice previously
This may be a contest for two-year-old sprinters, but experience is still critical.
Once-raced duo Mickey and Still On Top should be removed from any winner shortlist.
10 of the last 13 winners broke from stall 10 or higher
Being drawn low is not typically favourable at the Ebor meeting, especially so in his 6f contest. Stall one has failed to even provide a placed finisher in the last 13 years, let alone a winner.
A Momentofmadness, Delizia, Top Of The Bank, Encantar, Rantan, Projection and Orvar are all theoretically drawn too low to triumph here.
Seven of the last 13 winners were unplaced on their previous start
Taking no notice of recent form has proved a prudent strategy in recent years, as horses that have disappointed have used this contest to bounce back to form.
Tasleet, Ferryover, Mr Lupton, Rockley Point and Sign Of The Kodiac all ran too well on their most recent start to win this.
All of the last 13 winners had either one or two previous victories on their resumes
Nothing in this field has previously won any more than two races, but a fair few are still maidens awaiting a first success.
Included on this list of non-winners are Billy Roberts, General Alexander and Operative,
This leaves two runners – Lathom and Excessable – but the latter can be ruled out on account of being foaled in January. Some 12 of the last 13 winners were foaled in February of later.
Lathom is 10/1 and down in class here after finishing a solid fifth in the Group 3 Molecamb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time behind Kachy and King Of Rooks.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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