Glorious Goodwood: Favourites are there to be dodged in the Lennox
Another month, another big meeting to get stuck into. By the time Glorious Goodwood comes around, you’d have thought we would have a grasp on the credentials of the challengers by now.
But, with just eight winning favourites on the opening day of the meeting in the last five years, it appears there are opportunities for plenty of surprises this far into the season.
A note of caution though, this year’s meeting has seen the Vintage Stakes move to Tuesday, with the upset-heavy Molecomb switching to Wednesday
One thing we can be sure of though is that the incoming race is one to follow the money in.
Over the last seven years, five favourites have obliged with the winners odds returning at no bigger than 11/4 throughout that period.
Taking that into consideration it is probably worth coming to the conclusion that the Vintage will be a straight rematch between Superlative Stakes one-two Birchwood and Air Vice Marshall.
The latter was beaten a length by the Godolphin charge at Newmarket that time, appearing to run green in the latter stages.
That education at HQ and a 3lb swing in the weights following that reverse can see Aiden O’Brien land back-to-back runnings of the contest.
Going against the shorties in the Lennox Stakes on the other hand looks well worth doing.
Just four favourites have obliged in the 7f race in its 14 year lifespan, yielding a loss of £30 if backing the jollies to a £10 stake.
Even without that stat, likely market-leader Toormore looks there to be got at.
He has shown a mini-revival in 2015, having been disappointing last year, when going down narrowly in the Lockinge Stakes and running a gallant fourth in the Queen Anne.
However here he comes up against a couple of three-year-olds that could have plenty of improvement in them just yet.
The first horse to get the 5lb weight allowance is Jersey Stakes winner Dutch Connection.
Charlie Hills’ horse is now three from four over this trip, and only just went down ½l to Guineas runner-up Territories at Chantilly a fortnight ago.
He will want the ground to dry out a bit more to be at his best, but looks a real danger to his elder rival.
That said, Toormore’s danger could come from closer to home with stable-mate Tupi looking solid value under the retiring Richard Hughes.
The son of Tamayuz also flourishes over this intermediate distance with a record reading 122214.
He has 1½l to make up on Dutch Connection from Ascot, but at over three times the price is worth chancing in the hands of the Champion Jockey, for whom he rarely runs a bad race for.
So while there may be no getting away from the jolly in some races on the opening day, it could pay to take a chance on an outsider in the Lennox Stakes.
What’s more, if you do pick a winner at 4/1 or bigger on any race shown live on Channel 4 this week, you will be rewarded with a free bet.
Keep backing those victors and this week at Goodwood could be truly Glorious.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
Fancy a flutter? Sign up today to claim up to £25 in free bets.