The cases for and against Golden Horn going six from six at Ascot
John Gosden’s Derby hero Golden Horn goes out for the second time since winning the Epsom spectacle at a canter last month, and it’s tough to make a case against the 4/7 favourite.
Much of Golden Horn’s success has come against horses his own age, with a 3½l besting of Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old The Grey Gatsby last time out the sole exception.
The solid field of older runners set to line up in Berkshire led Gosden to describe this Group 1 as ‘probably his biggest test so far’, although the stats don’t really suggest as much.
Half of the King George winners since 2011 have been three years old, following a seven-year period of dominance from horses a campaign further along in their careers.
To make matters even worse for Golden Horn layers, the Cape Cross colt receives a whopping weight allowance due to his tender years, meaning the eight other males in the race, including 7/1 co-second-favourites Snow Sky and Eagle Top, will carry 10lb more than the jolly.
Whether either of that pair would have enough class to beat Gosden’s stable star off level weights is questionable, as Snow Sky finished a 2¼l runner-up to Western Hymn 14 months ago, who was crushed 7l by Golden Horn last time out, while Free Eagle lagged behind Michael Stoute’s charge at Royal Ascot last month.
With that in mind, take Gosden’s advice and ‘don’t rule the Italian horse Dylan Mouth out’.
Stefano Botti’s 33/1 outsider is the tentative each-way tip to chase Golden Horn home, after the four-year-old’s four consecutive victories since bombing out at this course’s royal meeting 13 months ago.
Good-to-firm conditions that day were a little on the quick side for a horse that’s done all its winning on good or soft ground. Friday’s rain should ensure Dylan Mouth puts up much more of a fight.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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