The King of Stats decrees: Fear not the King’s Stand raider
Published:
Born with a silver statistical spoon in monarchic mouth, nothing pleases the King of Stats more than to share his riches on the subject of a suitably regal race.
The King’s Stand, on the first day of Royal Ascot, is just such an affair and the rebuttal of a widely-circulated trend regarding the 5f burn up is the place to begin.
Namely, that foreign sprinters have dominated the race in recent years.
Yes, six of the last ten winners have hailed from beyond the shores of Great Britain or Ireland, with Australia and New Zealand responsible for no less than four.
Those four, alongside three placed horses came from a total of just 18 runners too.
However, it’s a trend that is being eroded by the passing of time – during the last five years only Hong Kong’s Little Bridge has defied the British and Irish entente.
This year’s sole raider from such a jurisdiction is Shamal Wind, the mount of Ryan Moore, a 7/1 shot for the Tuesday contest who took the Oakleigh Plate in his native land earlier this term.
All three Aussie winners during the past decade had landed the same race en route to Royal Meeting glory.
However, all three had also taken the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington, which the Robert Smerdon inmate didn’t even take part in.
Focusing on the British and Irish challenge, the fact that nine of the last ten victors finished first or second in their previous run eliminates half of the shortest eight in the betting.
Two-time defending champion Sole Power (4/1), G Force (14/1), Hot Streak and Rangali (16/1 the pair) all failed to do so last time.
The fact that punters shouldn’t need to look beyond the leading octet is advertised by just two winners sent off at SPs longer than 8/1 in the past decade.
Muthmir (4/1), Mecca’s Angel (7/1) and Pearl Secret (16/1) remain standing from the GB&IRE contingent, with trial race results highlighting the second named.
The winner of the Prix du Gros Chene, taken by Muthmir this term, has attempted to bag the King’s Stand five times in the last decade, doing no better than seventh.
Meanwhile, Pearl Secret has taken both the Beverley Bullet and the Temple Stakes in 2015, yet neither race’s victor has struck in the 5f Group 1 for the last ten years either.
Mecca’s Angel, on the other hand, landed both last term’s Scarborough Stakes and the Prix de Saint-Georges in 2015.
The French race’s sole winner to attempt the double, Chineur, secured it in 2005, while the last two to land the Doncaster sprint both prevailed in that year’s King’s Stand.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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