King of Stats: Hannon’s Windshear can usurp jolly in Ormonde

Eight candidates are set to go to post in the Ormonde Stakes, bidding to emulate some huge names including Brown Panther, St Nicholas Abbey and Harbinger by taking Chester’s Friday feature.

The 1m6f contest has seen some top-class horses line-up and predictably meant small field sizes, but 2015’s renewal looks reasonably open with plenty in with a chance.

Trends can be a major factor when trying find those all-important winners around Chester’s tight circuit, so we’ve crunched the numbers to present that all important criteria for this Group 3 contest.

Age

• In the last two decades, a whopping 17 winners were aged either four or five-years-old
  •  – Windshear, Big Orange, Deuce Again, Aussie Reigns

Class

• The last 18 winners had all previously finished in the first three in a Group race
  •  – Tac De Boistron, Windshear, Aussie Reigns

Rating

• Every one of the most recent 16 winners were officially rated at least 108
  •  – Tac De Boistron, Windshear, Big Orange, Fattsota

Course form

• Five of the last six winners had either already triumphed at Chester, or had won going left-handed at an all-weather track
  •  – Tac De Boistron, Big Orange, Deuce Again

Home advantage

• British bred horses have done well in this race, winning 75 per cent of the renewals in the last 16 years, from only 44 per cent of the runnings
  •  – Windshear, Big Orange, Clever Cookie, Deuce Again, Fattsota, Montefeltro

Recent run

• Though the last three winners have gone against this stat, 10 of the last 14 victors had already run that season
  •  – Winshear, Deuce Again, Fattsota, Aussie Reigns

Odds

• This hasn’t been a race to look for a big-priced winner in with the last 16 victors coming from the first two in the market
  •  – Tac De Boistron, Windshear

Conclusion

With favourites doing well in this race, respect has to go to Tac De Boistron who looks to be getting the required rain at Chester, and meet four of our criteria.

However, running away with things, ticking all but one box is Richard Hannon’s WINDSHEAR.

The St Leger fourth was slightly disappointing in the John Porter stakes (a route half of the last 12 winners had taken), but can go well back up in distance.

He was a winner on his debut on soft ground, so he will handle the wet conditions in Cheshire, and with the best in the business in Ryan Moore on his back, this consistent sort can put it to Marco Botti’s likeable grey.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

Fancy a flutter? Sign up today to claim up to £25 in free bets.