Election 2015: Hedge bets on Con or Lab majorities 48hrs before
Few things in recent memory have been as unpredictable as the 2015 General Election result, other than foretelling the final running order of the Championship’s top six with a few weeks to go perhaps.
The latest YouGov poll cannot split Conservatives and Labour, with both main parties locked on 33%.
The results released just two days prior to D-Day have shaved off a negligible 1-point lead for the Tories from 24 hours earlier.
Perhaps it was the flurry of celebrity endorsement for Ed Milliband’s campaign in recent days, flagged up on these very pages, which has done the trick for the opposition leader in the final throes of a frenetic campaign?
Whatever the reason, such numbers will leave many punters viewing the 1/12 about no party gaining the required majority to govern alone as generous by Ladbrokes.
However, this juncture could actually be the right time to hedge bets. Genuine fear of instability has been growing in the home straight of this election meaning the big boys could actually profit more than people are predicting.
With the balance of power finer than sand right now, a surge of support for David Cameron and his main opposition is not beyond the realms, as possible protest voters or even those defectors to less mainstream parties reconsider the destination of their Xs on polling day.
The ‘Shy Tory’ voters may turn out en masse and if they do, the 8/1 on a Conservative Majority is not necessarily a ludicrous approach.
The 33/1 on Milliband’s mob sounds bonkers, but then again we are talking about an election which has political analysts and Joe Public stumped in equal measures and you wouldn’t want to be left ruing the result at this price.
It would be a herculean effort by Labour and too fanciful for some, but no one has yet cast a vote and the polls were hugely defied back in 1992 when the Conservatives claimed a majority from ‘nowhere’.
Labour have canvassed well on several key issues, not least the NHS and although the majority could well be beyond them, the 7/2 on capturing most seats in the end is tasty.
With Ukip also polling at around 12% still, the 4/6 on 10-15% of the vote share looks ripe.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.