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Election 2015: 5 constituency fights to follow until polling day

| 12.04.2015

The seven-way leaders’ debate didn’t quite manage to electrify the UK General Election campaign, although with Easter almost out of the way and at least three more TV events to come, it’s about to get noisy again.

There are 650 battles currently taking place in the fight to represent Britain. Here are five to keep an eye on in the betting markets:

Glasgow South West

The 4/6 top price about the SNP in Glasgow North West looks the business at present, with Nicola Sturgeon’s crowd polling between 45%-47% with various firms over the weekend.

The Nats head the markets in five of Scotland’s largest city’s seven seats, formerly Labour strongholds, but that in itself may be good news for the reds’ backers in Glasgow South West.

Ed Miliband’s crowd are going strong, also at 4/6, which suggests they’ll take it, as surely Sturgeon’s insurgency can’t get much bigger than it currently is.


A fascinating battle, with Miliband’s former Special Advisor Polly Billington’s 9/4 challenge looking likely to be thwarted by 4/6 top-price favourites Ukip, through current East of England MEP Tim Aker.

Conservative MP Jackie-Doyle Price isn’t given much of a chance at 9/2, a shocking price for an incumbent which gives an indication of the depth of feeling towards Nigel Farage’s lot in this part of the country.

Hampstead and Kilburn

This may not be quite the walkover it appears in the betting, with Labour an industry-best 1/3 to retain a seat they won by just 42 votes in 2010, against a useful, local Conservative candidate at 7/2.

The Liberal Democrats have put up counter-extremism organisation Quilliam’s co-founder Maajid Nawaz (10/1), who looks certain to split the progressive vote in what was a three-way marginal last time.

This part of London is split between working-class and upper-middle-class voters, the latter of which will have been feeling some form of recovery of late, so 7/2 about the Tories taking it looks value, especially considering Labour stalwart and former Oscar winner Glenda Jackson has stepped down.


Lib Dem Adrian Sanders has been fighting Torbay for 23 years, taking it from the Tories in 1997 by the slenderest of margins and winning by at least 2000 votes at every General Election since, but the blues don’t need a big swing to claim back this part of Devon.

Nick Clegg’s crowd have just climbed their way up to double figures in the polls with 10% over the weekend, having been as low as 6% earlier this year.

This bump is too little to celebrate, and with the market principles at 10/11 apiece, the Tories look good to edge this.

Amber Valley

David Cameron’s crowd will struggle, however, to hold their ground up north, having done little to reverse the felling they’re almost entirely London-centric (although, to be fair, they never stood a chance).

The Tories are a top price of 9/4 to hang on in this part of Derbyshire, where MP Nigel Mills has an oh-so-slender 536 majority over heavily-fancied 4/9 shots Labour.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune