Debate Reaction from the Betting Markets: Meh.
So, on the YouGov poll that Ladbrokes used to settle the winner, Sturgeon got it. If we’d have gone with other pollsters we’d have paid out on a different winner, mostly Miliband. She was 8/1 at the start, came in for a little bit of support during the first half but then her odds really tumbled in the last 20 minutes, and she was 2/1 when it came to a close.
It was interesting to see Farage’s odds come in very dramatically, very early in the debate. About 20 minutes in we were taking money on him at 2/5, which seemed odd, given that he was putting on a decent show in his normal style and no more than that.
The Buzzword Bingo winners that we identified were
- The British People 1/5
- Long Term Economic Plan 1/2
- Rubbish 2/1
- Australian Points System 5/4
There were a few other close ones, but nothing exact, as far as we could tell.
The inconclusive nature of the polls meant that nothing much changed in the overall general election betting markets. If there is any impact, I would guess that the event may have done Miliband a bit of good. His adequate display might help boost his terrible approval ratings somewhat.
The more significant development last night was a startling YouGov poll, which would have been conducted before the debate.
Update: Cons lead at 2 – Latest YouGov / The Sun results 2nd Apr – Con 37%, Lab 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%; APP -10 https://t.co/V3ajOHS1FA
— YouGov (@YouGov) April 3, 2015
An incredible combined score of 72% for the big two parties, which does reflect a general trend apparent in other recent surveys. Given that Labour and the Conservatives only got 66% between them in 2010, it does put into context all the talk of new party systems, fragmentation and the like that we’ve heard a lot of recently.