Election 2015: 3 reasons why the Conservatives are ahead

With the Conservatives edging ahead of Labour in two of YouGov’s past three General Election polls, and steaming clear by four points in Lord Ashcroft’s latest study, now might be the moment to get on board David Cameron at 4/5 to still be Prime Minister at the next Queen’s speech.

There’s no doubt the Tories have had a better time of it of late. Here are a couple of reasons why:

Debates

Having been all for the three televised leaders’ debates at the 2010 General Election, the PM, no doubt with frightful Australian adviser Lynton Crosby in his ear, is being somewhat disgraceful in attempting to set the agenda this time round.

Alas, the closer we get to the short campaign with no agreement in place, the more likely Cameron will get his way and stifle the debates, or at the very least limit them to one seven or eight-way free-for-all including the likes of the Democratic Unionists Party.

The Tories have calculated that they lose little by refusing to debate, as much of their core support comes from people who really don’t care whether he’s ‘frit’ or not.

They’re very likely right.

Defence

Over the weekend, the leader of Boko Haram pledged the Islamist terrorists group’s allegiance to the growing Caliphate currently known as IS.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s belligerence continues to reach hitherto unknown heights as the stench of corruption and death of political pluralism blights Russia.

There’s little doubt this is playing into the Tories hands, particularly considering all the nonsense being alleged regarding 70 per cent of Labour candidates wanting to scrap Trident, Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

The more dangerous the world becomes between now and May, the more credible Cameron is likely to come across.  Dealing with geopolitical crises is far, far preferable to actual electioneering.

Devolution

Crosby and co knocked up this ingenious image for Cameron to tweet following the SNP surge in Scotland.

Alex Salmond with Ed Miliband in his pocket. The frightening prospect we must avoid. pic.twitter.com/ZH233tMHjm

— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) March 9, 2015

The message is clearly a powerful one as it seems Labour have little chance of forming a government without the support of Nicola Sturgeon’s party, who will exact a huge cost; if not another independence referendum, which feels unlikely, then massive devolution of tax-raising powers.

The rest of Britain won’t like that.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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