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SNP Glasgow wipe-out just 5/2

| 05.02.2015

glasgow

Despite Labour having huge majorities across the city, the SNP are now only 5/2 to win all seven seats in Glasgow next May.

The Ashcroft polling of each seat had them ahead 6-1, which might make the 3/1 odds above look tempting to some. You can find all of our general election odds on our site here.

This market is a good indication of why we don’t usually allow accumulators on constituency betting. Normally, you’d multiply up the odds from each individual proposition to provide a price on all of those things occurring. If you did that with the SNP odds in each of the Glasgow seats, you’d get odds of just under 40/1, as opposed to the 5/2 that Ladbrokes are actually offering.

In bookies’ terms, this is known as a “related contingency”; the chances of the SNP winning each of the Glasgow constituencies are not independent and so just multiplying up the odds doesn’t provide a true price for the accumulator. Basically, if they win Glasgow North East, which is the only one Ashcroft had them trailing in, they will almost certainly have won all of the six easier seats as well. So the odds on a clean sweep are only a little better than those on them winning just that one, hardest, target.

We’ve also got some revised odds on how many seats the SNP will win across Scotland. They hold six at the moment but are currently favourites in 40 of the individual constituency markets.

snpbands

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Author

Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.