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Ladbrokes Election Forecast: SNP up 8 seats

| 02.02.2015

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Two weeks ago we launched the Ladbrokes’ Election Forecast. This is based on our odds in every seat in Britain and simply reflects what would happen if the current favourite in every seat were to win in May.

The overall breakdown and changes since a fortnight ago are:

  • 287 Labour (-9)
  • 274 Conservatives (+1)
  • 31 Liberal Democrats (nc)
  • 30 SNP (+8)
  • 5 UKIP (nc)
  • 3 PC (nc)
  • 1 Green (nc)
  • 1 Speaker 
  • 18 Northern Ireland

The seats in which the projected winner have changed are:

  • Northampton North (Lab-Cons)
  • Livingston (Lab-SNP)
  • Edinburgh East (Lab-SNP)
  • Inverclyde (Lab-SNP)
  • Stirling (Lab-SNP)
  • Aberdeen South (Lab-SNP)
  • Kilmarnock & Loudoun (Lab-SNP)
  • Glasgow East (Lab-SNP)
  • Glasgow Central (Lab-SNP)

It’s hard to know what post-election government would emerge from such a result. Presumably a Labour led administration supported in some way by the SNP and the Liberal Democrats. Here are the latest odds:

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The rules for this market are that a coalition must involve members from the named parties occupying full cabinet positions.

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Author

Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.