The Ladbrokes’ Election Forecast
Ladbrokes have odds on every individual constituency in Britain, which you can find here. Our election forecast is simply the result that would occur if the current favourite in every seat were to win. These markets have been running for several months now, so are a good representation of where the money has been going across the country.
- 296 Labour
- 273 Conservatives
- 31 Lib Dems
- 22 SNP
- 5 UKIP
- 3 PC
- 1 Green
- 1 Speaker
- 18 Northern Ireland
The full list of the 77 seats changing hands (from the 2010 results, so ignoring by-elections) is as follows:
| 37 Lab Gains from Cons | 9 Cons Gains from LD |
| Warwickshire North | Solihull |
| Hendon | Dorset Mid and Poole North |
| Cardiff North | Wells |
| Sherwood | St Austell and Newquay |
| Broxtowe | Somerton and Frome |
| Stockton South | Chippenham |
| Lancaster and Fleetwood | Taunton Deane |
| Amber Valley | Berwick-upon-Tweed |
| Waveney | Portsmouth South |
| Wolverhampton South West | |
| Carlisle | 8 SNP Gains from Lab |
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | Ochil and Perthshire South |
| Stroud | Glasgow North |
| Weaver Vale | Falkirk |
| Lincoln | Dundee West |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Aberdeen North |
| Warrington South | Ayrshire North and Arran |
| Dewsbury | Linlithgow and Falkirk East |
| Bedford | Dunbartonshire West |
| Brighton Kemptown | |
| Pudsey | 8 SNP Gains from LD |
| Corby | Dunbartonshire East |
| Brentford and Isleworth | Argyll and Bute |
| Enfield North | Edinburgh West |
| Hove | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine |
| Hastings and Rye | Gordon |
| Ipswich | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross |
| Nuneaton | Inverness, N,B & S |
| Halesowen and Rowley Regis | Fife North East |
| Northampton North | |
| Bury North | 9 Lab Gains from LD |
| Erewash | Cardiff Central |
| Chester, City of | Norwich South |
| Croydon Central | Bradford East |
| Keighley | Brent Central |
| Cannock Chase | Manchester Withington |
| Ealing Central & Acton | Burnley |
| 5 UKIP Gains from Cons | Birmingham Yardley |
| Thurrock | Redcar |
| Great Yarmouth | Hornsey and Wood Green |
| Thanet South | |
| Clacton | |
| Boston and Skegness |
This is not the only way we could have built a forecast from our odds. If you total the probabilities of each party winning each seat, you’d find the SNP doing a few seats better (mostly at the expense of Labour) and UKIP doing a lot better. As it happens, I think the method above probably underestimates the SNP’s chances, which may indicate that there are still some good bets on them in some of the individual seats.
In the three seats where we have joint favourites (Worcester, Dudley S. & Devon N.), I have allocated the seat to the incumbent party.
