How many seats will UKIP win?

Fancy trying to predict exactly how many seats UKIP will win at the general election? Ladbrokes have issued some odds on their exact number of constituency wins.

If you go through our individual constituency odds for every seat in Great Britain (available here) you’ll find that UKIP are favourites in five seats. I’ve also shown the probability of them winning each seat, as implied by our latest odds:

• Clacton (82%)
• Boston & Skegness (56%)
• Thanet South (56%)
• Thurrock (56%)
• Great Yarmouth (40%)

So, Douglas Carswell looks like a certainty in Clacton, but after that it’s much more difficult for them, which helps explain why 1 seat only is the favourite. Interestingly, the betting markets currently think that Mark Reckless is unlikely to hold on in Rochester & Strood (he’s given a 38% chance).

Some other forecasting models are producing the following totals:

• electionforecast: 3 seats
• May2015: 3 seats
• electoralcalculus: 0 seats

Good Luck!